Bardzo często nie wiemy co się tak naprawdę dzieje na rynku pomimo tego ze mamy opracowaną jakaś tam strategie. Ale czasami uda się zobaczyć na wykresie takie światełko w tunelu pokazującą że jesteśmy na dobrej drodze i nie warto jej zmieniać. To tak jakby iść w górach w jakiś tam kierunku w gęstej mgle i nagle mgła ta się odsłania i widać bardzo wyraźnie drogę przed nami.
Tak tez stało się i teraz .Zawsze pisze że na rynek trzeba patrzeć w skali mikro i makro.
Skala makro pozwala nam na obranie właściwego kierunku ruchu ( w tym przypadku spadku na giełdach ) a skala mikro pozwala dostrzec potwierdzenie tego ruchu chociaż wygląda na to że giełda podąża w zupełnie inna stronę. Szukam takich sygnałów na różnych rynkach WIG ,DJI czy np. złoto i srebro.
Na rynku metali szlachetnych widzę początek hossy na złocie i srebrze od ok. miesiąca , a na DJI dostrzegłam bardzo ciekawą formacje A/B/C fale płaska nieregularną podobną do tej którą opisuje w blogu. Zasadnicza różnica miedzy tymi falami to czas w którym one przebiegają.
Ta opisywana w blogu trwa już ok. 7 lat a ta którą przedstawiam na rysunku trwa zaledwie kilkanaście dni i rozpoczęła się 25 listopada 2022r.
Można by się zastanawiać czy cos je łączy. Uważam że ta fala „C” na DJI wg moich obliczeń powinna się zakończyć na poziomie 33 454 pkt. , a faktycznie zakończyła się w dniu 9.12.2022 na poziomie 33 476 pkt. Z bardzo duża dokładnością.
Podobnie wyznaczyłem dno fali „C” w 2011 roku ( mój post z dn. 26.11.2022 ) gdzie z wyprzedzeniem 8 miesięcy przewidziałem dno fali „C” z dokładnością 0,033%.
To wszystko nie są przypadki. To że tak trójka korekcyjna odbywa się w czasie kilku miesięcy , jednego dnia , czy kilku lat tak jak to co pisuje w blogu nie ma żadnego znaczenia.
To ze najprawdopodobniej na to nikt jeszcze nie wpadł i nie odkrył tego nie znaczy ze mogę nie mieć racji. Sprawa polega na tym że nikt w to nie wierzy , ale jak się już sprawdzi i będzie wiadomo że tak jest , będzie już za późno żeby skorzystać z tej informacji.
Wracając do aktualnej fali „C” na DJI która zakończyła się w dn. 9.12.2022 na poziomie 33 476 pkt . to DJI w chwili obecnej powinien wzrosnąć do poziomu 33 032 pkt. i potem zacznie znowu spadać.
Czynniki zew. takie na które powołuje się Sławek ( dane o inflacji itp. ) nie będą miały żadnego znaczenia. Takie jest moje zdanie a czas pokaże czy mam rację.
Jeśli tak się stanie to ta trójka A/B/C na DJI dla mnie będzie jak latarnia morska która odsłoniła się z mgły i pojawiła się po tych zwyżkach na DJI. Pokazuje ona prawidłowy kierunek mojej strategii.
Owszem miałem bardzo duże straty ale teraz będę miał szanse je odrobić.
Aby jeszcze bardziej was przekonać do tego że taka trójka korekcyjna A/B/C się sprawdza niezależnie od czasu trwania dołączam wykres dzienny z WIG z 2013 roku.
Podsumowując:
- Na postawie trójki korekcyjnej A/B/C przy prawidłowej interpretacji można bardzo precyzyjnie przewidzieć dno fali „C” niezależnie od czasu trwania tej fali. W tym wpisie dołączam przykłady z 2011 roku dla fali która trwał ok. 9 miesięcy, dla jednodniowej z 2013 roku i tą która aktualnie utworzyła się na DJI . Ta która aktualnie utworzyła się na WIG ( siedmioletnia – która opisuje w blogu ) powinna się tak samo zakończyć zgodnie z moimi obliczeniami…..niezależnie od istniejących czynników zewnętrznych .
- Formacja A/B/C która utworzyła się aktualnie na DJI jest jakby wierzchołkiem kończącym zwyżkę korekcyjną. Jeśli DJI zakończy wzrost na poziomie 34 032 i zacznie spadać , dla mnie będzie to jedynie potwierdzeniem mojej prognozy.
- Analizując aktualną sytuacje na giełdzie warto na nią patrzeć równocześnie w skali mikro i makro , bo wtedy można dostrzec ważne mini sygnały pozwalające odnaleźć się w aktualnej sytuacji
Chyba się obudzili https://bithub.pl/wiadomosci/blackrock-ostrzega-nadchodzi-recesja-jakiej-swiat-nie-widzial/
Dzięki za link.Przyznam się że mało czytam innych informacji na temat rynku i dlatego jestem wdzięczny za informacje które waszym zdaniem są ciekawe.
W wywiadzie piszą że w 2023 roku spodziewają się spadku indeksu DJI o 20 %.
Ja spodziewam się spadu o ok. 50 % .
Zobaczymy kto będzie bliżej prawdy.
A Andrzej już był pewny spadkow a tu zagranica zagrała euforycznie pod dane o inflacji. Ewidentnie gra tu kapital zagraniczny i podchodzi pod kolejne silne opory na wig pod 58-58500. I 1800-850 Na wig 20. Do końca roku spokój jak pisałem fundusze chcą utrzymać te poziomy i wycisnąć ile się da, krótkie pozycje. Jutro wystąpienie Pawela i znów może być ciekawie i mocne ruchy. 200 setka na wig już przebita ale to o niczym jeszcze nie świadczy nieraz tak bywało i rynek zawracał. Na moje powoli podchodzimy pod szczyt tego ruchu
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