Niestety dla mnie poziom oporu na indeksie DJ na poziomie 35 625 pkt, z dn. 16.08.2021 pkt został pokonany. Żeby nie zbankrutować musiałem więc zamknąć swoja pozycję krótka na kontraktach na WIG 40 .Rozliczenie przedstawię na końcu wpisu
Pisze w tytule że zabawa na „Tytaniku” trwa bo tak sobie wymyśliłem że ten mój „Tytanik „ to taki statek który rozpoczął rejs w 1929 roku .Na początku nie było chętnych , ale w chwili obecnej panuje na nim pełna euforia inwestycyjna ,wszyscy inwestują w akcje ,nikt się nie przejmuje możliwością nadejścia korekty , bo przecież w 90 letniej historii takie korekty szybko się kończyły i rynek ponownie rósł ,ale czy tak będzie trwało wiecznie .Moim zdaniem nie.
Pytanie tylko brzmi kiedy to się zakończy. Tego podobno nikt nie wie.
Ja mam nadzieje rozwiązać ta zagadkę posługując się analizą techniczną w czystej formie.
Czy mi się to uda …..tego nie wie nikt….ale ja jestem do tego przekonany w 99 %.
Czas pokaże czy mam racje.
Nie przewidziałem takiego obrotu sprawy i dlatego tak żle to wygląda na dzień dzisiejszy.
Na poniższym wykresie przedstawiam swoja aktualna prognozę dotyczącą indeksu DJ.
Dlaczego akurat DJ ??? Ponieważ widzę na nim pewne zależności które jestem przewidzieć posługując się analizą techniczną. Tylko ona mnie interesuje ,Tzw. zjawiska okołorynkowe nie maja dla mnie żadnego znaczenia.
Na wykresie przedstawiam nową linie oporu na poziomie 36 587 pkt. Zakładam że jeśli indeks DJ dotrze do tego poziomu to zacznie się spadek indeksu ,a właściwie krach bo prognozuje jego spadek do poziomu 9 490 pkt. Zdaje sobie sprawę że to jest być może mało prawdopodobne dla tzw. większości rynkowej ale ja tak to widzę i przedstawiam to wprost.
Patrząc na aktualny poziom indeksu DJ będzie to spadek ok. 70 % w skali arytmetycznej .
Jednocześnie utrzymuje swoja dotychczasowa prognozę dotycząca spadku ‘Krachu” na indeksie WIG do poziomu 28 490 pkt.
Patrząc na aktualny poziom indeksu WIG będzie to spadek o ok 60 % w skali arytmetycznej .
Niestety na indeksie WIG nie widzę żadnej zależności która pozwoliła by mi wyznaczyć linie aktualnego oporu dla WIG więc będę się posługiwał się w prognozowaniu indeksem DJ.
Dla indeksu WIG bardzo wazna linia wsparcia jest poziom 67 999 pkt z dn. 28.06.2021 .
Pokonanie tego poziomu wsparcia będzie oznaczało ponowne wejście indeksu WIG w obszar formacji A/B/C siedmioletniej fali korekcyjnej która powinna zakończyć się na poziomie 28 490 pkt.
Zdaje sobie dobrze sprawę że moje prognozy wyglądają bardzo katastroficznie ,ale niestety ja tak to widzę i tak będę inwestował swoje pieniądze .Tak jak wspomniałem wyżej w chwili obecnej po dużych stratach na kontraktach musiałem pozycje zamknąć i czekam na rozwój wypadków .Jak indeks DJ dotrze do wyznaczonego przeze mnie poziomu oporu będę się poważnie zastanawiał nad ponownym wejściem na rynek.
Poniżej przedstawiam aktualne rozliczenie swojej pozycji .
- Portfel nr. 1 -Pozycja krótka na kontraktach – strata 6680 zł strata – 55,6 % – pozycja zamknieta w dn. 29.10.2021
- Portfel nr. 2 – Złoto,Srebro i Querqus Short – strata 291 zł strata – 2,91 %
Podsumowując :
Portfel nr. 1 – zamknąłem pozycje krótką na kontraktach ze stratą 6680 zł zł tzn. 55,6 %
Portfel nr. 2 – utrzymuje w dalszym ciągu pozycje na złoto 33%,srebro 33 % i Querqus Short 33 %.
Moja inwestycja jest długoterminowa i trudno oczekiwać po niej szybkich zysków .
Ale one nadejdą. Taka mam nadzieję.
Będę wdzięczny za każdy komentarz z waszej strony. Nawet te negatywne. Pozwoli mi to na wyjaśnieniu wszelkich nieścisłości i niejasności związanych z moja prognozą .
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