Na rynku cisza i spokój, właściwie nic się nie dzieje. WIG dryfuje poniżej poziomu 61 900 pkt. , DJI nie przekroczył wsparcia 34 108 pkt. (w cenach zamknięcia) ,także na obecna chwilę moja prognoza przedstawiona w zeszłym tygodniu jest utrzymana , ale sytuacja jest podbramkowa.
W każdej chwili może się coś wydarzyć co może to wszystko zakłócić. Trzeba jednak na cos stawiać.
Ja na to wszystko patrzę z dystansu długoterminowego i traktuję ta ostatnia „korektę” wzrostową jako korektę , a nie początek hossy.
Każdy ma swój punkt widzenia na tą rzeczywistość i tylko czas zweryfikuje czy będę miał rację.
Domyślam że większość z was czytających mojego bloga oceniacie to co się dzieje na rynku z punktu widzenia krótkoterminowego tzn. ½ roku , rok, 2 lata i stąd wynika zupełnie inna interpretacja tego co się dzieje na rynku.
Prognozując WIG czy DJI dla mnie obszarem do analizy jest ostatnie osiem lat i więcej , dlatego nasze interpretacje mogą być zupełnie inne.
Każdy z nas sam wybiera sobie własną prognozę i czego się trzyma. I tak jest bardzo dobrze.
Ja przedstawiam jedynie swój własny punkt widzenia na to co widzę.
Dużo słucham wypowiedzi różnych osób na You Tube , i przyznam się że są tam wywiady które z mojego punktu widzenia są bardzo ciekawe. Np. Chojnacki Kwiecień mają bardzo ciekawy cykl wywiadów na temat złota.
https://stooq.pl/mol/?id=30903
Pozdrawiam
Dziękuje za link. Pożyjemy zobaczymy kto będzie miał racje.
Tak jak kiedyś wspominałem ….niby wszyscy widzimy to samo , ale rożne mogą być tego interpretacje.
https://www.prisonplanet.pl/ekonomia/usa_zmienia_wyliczanie_cpi,p843681021
Dla mnie to wszystko to wirtualna księgowość.Nigdy nie dowiemy się prawdy bo rządzący będą zmieniali wskaźniki do swoich potrzeb.Dla nich najważniejsza jest możliwość dodruku nowego pieniadza , a co za tym idzie to trzeba trochę poczytać historie.Bo historia lubi się powtarzać .Jak ktoś tego nie rozumie albo nie chce zrozumieć to obudzi się z ręką w nocniku i będzie miał pretensje do całego świata.
Generalnie gospodarka leży na łopatkach. Jak widzę w castoramie czy w lerua ludzi jak na lekarstwo i pracownicy nie mają co robić przy kasach pustki nawet w sobotę no to na moje hamowanie idzie ostre Ale giełda widać rządzi się swoimi prawami
Myślę że masz rację,ten osłabiony ruch to oznaka hamowania gospodarki i zmniejszonych możliwości zakupowych społeczeństwa.Działa to trochę z opóźnieniem.To spowolnienie gospodarki to dla mnie taki ruski czołg ,jak się ruszy to już trudno go zatrzymać.
Jak się rozpoczął korona wirus to ludzie w marketach technicznych szaleli z zakupami , pomimo tego że giełda ostro dołowała.
W gospodarce tez nie jest najlepiej.Z opinii znajomych którzy zajmują się handlem w sprawach technicznych widać wyraźne zmniejszenie obrotów.Firmy zaczynają zwalniać handlowców.
Bardzo ciekawe wypowiedzi ma P .Bogusław Grabowski ekonomista ,były członek RPP.Twierdzi że nasz dług publiczny jest na granicy katastrofy , a PIS ciągle tylko pogarsza sytuacje i nie panuje nad tym.Dla nich liczą się tylko słupki wyborcze i motanie ludziom w głowach obietnicami rozdawnictwa publicznych pieniędzy.To prowadzi do katastrofy finansowej nie tylko w Polsce.
Jak ktoś liczy w takich okolicznościach na kontynuowanie hossy to może się bardzo pomylić.
Takie są moje przemyślenia w tej kwestii ,a fundamentem dla tego wszystkiego jest to co widzę na AT.
Jak sobie to wszystko poukładam w głowie to jest to dla mnie bardzo prosto ,i niestety muszę to powiedzieć ……że lepiej to już było.
https://10-procent-rocznie.blogspot.com/2023/02/obroty-na-spadajacych-spokach-osiagney.html
Mogę powiedzieć tylko tyle że wszyscy patrzymy na ten sam wykres ale rożne wnioski wyciągamy.
Dla mnie dno z bessy covidowej zostanie pokonane.
Autor wpisu ma inne zdanie.
Tylko czas rozstrzygnie kto ma rację.
Mamy pełen odpał, rynek zrobił to co miało być. Minimum odbicia w USA zaliczone. Kolejny opór 3-5 % wyżej, u nas podobnie. Jeżeli mają jechać dalej to maksymalna cofka powinna mieć maks. 3-4 %.
https://stooq.pl/mol/?id=31025
Jak widać każdy rynek gra swoje https://stooq.pl/n/?f=1534817
Uważam że jednak rynki graja podobnie , co nie oznacza że zachowują się idealnie tak samo.
Jeśli sprawdzi się to co prognozuje to w najbliższym czasie będą kontynuowane spadki na wszystkich rynkach akcji.Wygląda na to że rynek brytyjski jest najsilniejszy .
Spadki będą kontynuowane? Jaka kontynuacja skoro rynek brytyjski historyczne szczyty. Więc jeśli kontynuacja to raczej wzrostów. DJIA poniżej szczytu mniej niż 10proc.
Pożyjemy zobaczymy
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