Niektórzy znani analitycy tacy jak Wojciech Białek czy znany traider Rafał Zaorski prognozują dalsze wzrosty , ale uważam że się mylą i to bardzo. O tym kto ma racje zadecyduje rynek a nie to że ktoś jest uznanym autorytetem na rynku.
Nie będzie już dalszej hossy a będzie kontynuacja spadków. I nabierze ona tempa i dynamiki.
Tak jak opisywałem wcześniej WIG dąży do poziomu 28 490 pkt. DJI – do ok.9500.
Pod koniec tej nazwijmy to BESSY mogą się zdarzyć sesje gdzie DJI lub WIG mogą spadać na jednej sesji po 10 %.Nie są to jakieś konkretne obliczenia ale tylko moje przypuszczenia. Ludzie stracą nadzieje na dalsze wzrosty i będą prawdopodobnie panicznie wyprzedawać akcje.
Takie zjawisko będzie prawdopodobnie zarówno na naszej giełdzie jak i na Wall Street .
Jeśli moja krótkoterminowa prognoza odnośnie kontynuacji spadków na DJI ( korekta a/b/c ) opisywana w poprzednim wpisie się sprawdzi to można sobie zadać pytanie czy takie korekty typu a/b/c sprawdzają się w dłuższym terminie np. miesiąc, rok czy nawet dekada.
Uważam że tak.
Z moich doświadczeń wynika że pewne zależności w analizie technicznej sprawdzają się w różnych terminach, krótszych i dłuższych.
W chwili obecnej testuje najbardziej długą formacje A/B/C która ukształtowała się na WIG w okresie 2015 do dnia dzisiejszego którą opisuje na swoim blogu.
Jeśli się ona sprawdzi to WIG powinien zakończyć spadek do poziomu 28 490 pkt . kończąc jednoznacznie falę „C”.
Co to będzie znaczyło.
Będzie to znaczyło że analiza techniczna się sprawdza i można z wyprzedzeniem ok 2 lat przewidzieć bardzo precyzyjnie co się będzie w przyszłości działo na giełdzie.
Jednocześnie będzie to potwierdzeniem że zjawiska okołorynkowe tzn. wojna na Ukrainie ,polityka FED czy RPP , wybory prezydenckie w USA czy polityka USA wobec Chin ,itp. , nie mają większego wpływu na giełdę .Owszem mogą powstać chwilowe turbulencje takie jak jak np. wojna na Ukrainie ale w dłuższym czasie wszystkie te zjawiska oddziaływają na rynek w strukturze skompensowanej tzn. nie wiemy dokładnie jakie czynniki jaki mają wpływ na giełdę.
I tak np. zniesienie parytetu złota do dolara w 1971 roku przez polityków żeby mieć pieniądze na swoje przedwyborcze obietnice doprowadziło do tego krachu. Takie jest moje zdanie. Dlaczego to tak długo trwało bo aż 50 lat tego nie wiem , ale na pewno niejedną książkę na ten temat napiszą .
To co tutaj pisze to jest taki mój prywatny pojedynek Dawida z Goliatem.
Mam przeciwko sobie znanych i utytułowanych analityków ,doradców inwestycyjnych z tytułami i dyplomami, innych expertów od giełdy również z tytułami prof. Itp. ,analityków w potężnych bankach i Funduszach Inwestycyjnych ……..oni tak na dobra sprawę nie maja zielonego pojęcia co się dzieje i analizują to co widza dzisiaj i próbują temu zaradzić na swój sposób. Ale nie wiedza co będzie za rok , 2 lata ,3 lata itp.
A mnie się wydaje że wiem co będzie.
Pierwszym takim krokiem milowym do sprawdzenie mojej długoterminowej prognozy będzie w najbliższym czasie spadek WIG do poziomu 28 490 pkt.
Analityy z poteżnych domów inwestycyjnych maja taka wiedzę ,że tobie się nie sniło.A co oni mieli by z tego ,że powiedzą nadchodzi krach wszechczasów. Na tym krachu to trzeba zarobić ogromne pieniądze a tak wszyscy obstawili by shorty i kto by longi kupował.
Jezeli chodzi o Białka i Zaorskiego to ten pierwszy nie mówi o wzrostach tylko o spadkach do wrzesnia i od tego czasu przewiduje odbicie pod wybory do kongresu. Zaorski z kolei zamknał pozycje na krypto i stracił 3 melony choc ponoć na wig 20 trzyma. ale uważam ,że to błąd
Może i wiedze mają bo są na pewno wykształceni , ale niestety nie wiedza co nas czeka w przyszłości.Popatrz na Warrena Bufeta…..czy ktoś może powiedzieć ze nie zna się na rynku…..a popłynie na tym krachu jak rzadko kiedy……..powiedzenie że ” większość nie ma racji ” dotyczy również grubych ryb , nie tylko dużych i małych inwestorów……czas to wszystko zweryfikuje…metodę którą się posługuje sam wymyśliłem także nie znajdziesz jej w żadnym podręczniku.
O tym że jest skuteczna już kilkakrotnie się przekonałem.Co prawda dwa razy po tym zbankrutowałem ale to była lekcja ,nauka.
Jak WIG spadnie do poziomu 28490 pkt. to będę mógł powiedzieć że znowu się sprawdziła.Ważne żeby potem wszystko przebiegło z planem.Ale to już inna bajka.Na to trzeba trochę poczekać.
Woren Bafett to dziadek po 90-tce takze wydajac 1 mln dolców dziennie to tego nie wyda do konca życia ,ktore ma
Chciałbym być w takiej formie psychicznej i fizycznej jak Warren Buffet.Ma 90 lat a jeszcze mu się chce inwestować i w ogóle aktywnie spędzać czas.Zdecydowana większość ludzi w tym wieku chodzi już jedynie do kościoła i myśli o „śmierci”. Jestem pełen szacunku dla tego dziadka po 90 -tce jak to nazwałeś.On nie musi tego robić i nie robi tego dla pieniędzy.Robi to bo lubi to robić i to jest z pewnością jego pasja.Przez 70 lat inwestując sprawdzała się jego strategia i dlatego teraz jak rynek się zmieni z hossy na bessę nie będzie do tego przygotowany.Nie zmieni jej i dlatego będzie miał straty i chyba wycofa się.Myślę że jemu nie zależy na zarabianiu pieniędzy tylko na inwestowaniu ,opracowywaniu skutecznej strategi inwestycyjnej , a że przy okazji na tym zarabia to juz inna bajka.On nie potrzebuje pieniędzy ,potrzebuje działać a pieniądze same przy okazji przychodzą…..tez bym tak chciał…i wcale mu nie zazdroszczę jego fortuny ale jestem pełen podziwu dla człowieka, i nawet jak teraz przegra i zacznie tracić dalej będę go bardzo szanował
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